Media Disintegration – Updated

Alright, this bugs me.

While I have no problem with the X-Box 360, Halo 3 or the countless hours one can spend combining the two for a little testosterone-fueled fun, I do take issue with Microsoft’s specious claim that they’re outdoing SPIDER-MAN 3, “the summer blockbuster that grossed $151 million in its opening weekend” to become – as their reps put it – “officially the biggest entertainment launch in history.” Yeah…but no. Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Microsoft Is boasting an estimated $170 million take for the game’s first day, which is – no denying it – an impressive haul. They got to that figure by offering gamers a variety of ways to show their love for the ”Haloverse,” including “a $59.99 “regular edition” that comes with just the game…a $69.99, “limited edition” version of the game that includes an art book and other extras…[and] a $129.99 “legendary edition” complete with a replica helmet worn by Master Chief.” So the bottom line is that your buy-in to the latest chapter of the Halo “phenomenon” is seventy bucks. To make things simple, let’s go ahead and say that everyone bought that low-cost version of the game.

$170,000,000 / $70 = 2,428,571 purchasers

Now then, let’s dissect their claim at outdoing SPIDER-MAN 3 for “the biggest entertainment launch in history.” The third installment in the adventures of everyone’s favorite webslinger accumulated – according to the article – $151 million in its opening weekend. Since movie prices here in Montreal are $15, let’s go ahead and use that as our sample.

$151,000,000 / $15 = 10,066,667 purchasers

Now, the issue here is that two things with little to no relation – movies and videogames – are being compared in order to establish one’s supposed market superiority. As the above calculations prove, however, SPIDER-MAN 3 reached more than 400% more people in its launch than Halo 3. Furthermore, the film has gone on to amass an international box office tally of $887,530,303 to date – a figure that doesn’t even touch on the hundreds of millions in revenue that will come with the film’s release on DVD. While one might argue that DVD sales don’t have anything to do with Microsoft’s launch claim, they do illustrate that films enjoy repeated business in a variety of formats while videogame consumers are done after a single shot.

So let’s get to the real question: why is Microsoft dragging Spider-Man into this? Well, there’s the possibility that they couldn’t resist trying to find a way to spurn Sony, which is responsible for both the Spider-Man franchise and the PlayStation 3 – which just so happens to be the X-Box 360’s chief rival. My guess, however, is that they’re comparing their game to a hugely successful Hollywood film because they’re still stinging over the fact that their game’s filmic adaptation crashed and burned before it ever got anywhere near the screens.

But why would that happen? I mean, the article makes Halo sound like it’s some huge global phnomenon…right? Well, again, let’s look at the numbers. Since they’re comparing themselves to SPIDER-MAN 3 – which had a reported budget of $250 million – let’s go ahead and give our imaginary Halo movie the same nine-figure budget. Now let’s assume that everyone who bought the game goes to see it on the opening weekend.

2,428,571 purchasers x $15 admission = $36,428,565

…which is less than a quarter of the box office generated by the opening of SPIDER-MAN 3. So while Microsoft is right to take pride in their big opening, they’d best keep things in perspective. And keep their fight on the small screen.

*Update 10/4/07 – Deadline Hollywood Daily has posted a breakdown by video game agent Keith Boesky, who makes a similar dissection of Microsoft’s Spider-Man/Halo 3 comparison. Although he uses alternative price models and brings some new data to the table, he arrives at the same conclusion. You can check out the article here.